Malaria transmission potential in the Three Gorges Reservoir of the Yangtze River, China.

OBJECTIVE To define and evaluate the malaria transmission potential in the Yangtze River, following construction of the Three Gorges Reservoir. METHODS Six villages, namely, Kaixian, Fengjie, Wanzhou, Fuling, Yubei, and Zigui were selected for investigating the malaria transmission potential in the reservoir. Transmission potential was estimated by mathematical modeling and evaluation of the local malaria situation. Factors that influenced the transmission potential were analyzed using Poisson regression analysis in combination with Grey Systematic Theory (based on evaluation by the Delphi method). RESULTS Indirect fluorescent antibody data and the incidence of malaria in the local population were consistent with the malaria transmission potential calculated for the area. Multivariate Poisson regression analysis showed a statistically significant association between the riparian zone and the man-biting rate. CONCLUSION The risk of a malaria epidemic can be forecasted using the malaria transmission potential parameters investigated here which was closely correlated with the riparian zone.